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Rissi Palmer played the riverfront stage Saturday night at the 2025 Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival.

8:17a There is a new Invest (potential storm) on the Atlantic, Invest 95. The word from NOAA/NHC:

The initial models (unofficial) suggest Invest 95 will be on a familiar route… trending north and staying offshore.

Sorry, Bermuda.

• Hurricane Center

7:57a Water levels are about 6 inches lower this morning, now at 1.7 ft. Those few inches do make a real difference… the sidewalk on Hodges Street by the harbor is now (mostly) dry.

You can walk the sidewalk w regular shoes and stay dry (except for &^%$s driving through the water and making wakes).

The Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival starts at 11a today, with music going all day and into the evening. Schedule here.

Mariposa is open Saturday, Sunday & Monday mornings 7-10a (bakery) and evenings 3-8p (wine bar).

Broadstrokes Gallery has an artists reception today, 2-5p. October’s guest artist is Jonathan Burger, who creates sculpture with metal, wood, concrete and paint.

12:40p The 2025 Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival is underway, performances start at 1p. The online schedule is here.

Perfect porch weather for the weekend: sunny & mid 70s today, near 80 Saturday and Sunday.

• Oriental NC Forecast

8:55a Now a one-boat schedule (back to two boats at 1p). From Cherry Branch:

6:55a Water levels now at just over 2 ft above normal. The ferry is back in operation, on a regular two boat schedule.

The Bean will reopen this morning at 7:30a (ish).

After their dance together near the US East Coast, Hurricane Imelda actually did absorb the remnants of Hurricane Humberto… it appears to occur just after Imelda passes over Bermuda.

The satellite view:

5:05p A week ago storm Imelda appeared like it could be a real problem. Today, after a kind (to us) forecast track sent Hurricane Imelda east & offshore… the storm was declared post-tropical. Goodbye Imelda.

There are two potential disturbances on the Atlantic, neither an imminent threat:

• Hurricane Center

Water levels have held steady today, hanging right around 2.4 ft high.

As a result of the high water levels, still no ferry.

6:01a No ferry this morning. Maybe no ferry today (unless water levels go down). From Cherry Branch:

They don’t mean a lunar tide. It’s the wind tide we’ve been experiencing. In Oriental, water levels peaked at 3.02 ft above normal yesterday.

That’s pulled back a bit, currently at 2.4 ft above normal.

• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge

3:02p October is home to key events in Oriental. Ol’ Front Porch this weekend. Next weekend is the Oriental Cup Regatta, Oriental’s classic event where keel boats contend for the cup.

More info and online regatta registration is at orientalcupregatta.com.

The 17th Annual Chil Cook-off is Oct 25.

Maybe 2026 brings a return of another October event?

The last Oriental Classic Car Show was in 2023. Despite a rainy day, 50 cars participated.

The year before had ideal weather, and the 2022 car show had 96 entries. Take a look.

2021? 100 classic cars in the show.

6:40a Welcome to October… some folks find it to be the most beautiful month (and best for sailing) of the year,

It’s all cloudy at the moment, but blue skies will poke through. A partly sunny mid 70s day is ahead.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

The weather to watch in our town today is high northeast winds. On the Neuse, 20-25, gusts to to 30 (same forecast for Thursday). Those winds are pushing water levels up. You’ll need boots to walk on Hodges St near the harbor.

• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast

HarborCam has the high water view.

Out on the Atlantic, Hurricane Imelda now has 90 mph winds, moving east at 20 mph. The storm goes right over Bermuda tonight.

8:11a It’s now Hurricane Imelda, 75 mph. Imelda is kindly heading heading east and far away.

Kind unless you’re in Bermuda, where Hurricane Imelda will make landfall Wednesday night.

• Hurricane Imelda Tracking Chart
• Hurricane Imelda Forecaster’s Discussion & Computer Models
• Hurricane Imelda Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

Back here in river city, the sun will come out. Tomorrow.

7:59a As Imelda’s forecast track has moved south, so have the rain predictions. The latest Imelda rain projections are staying south of us:

• Tropical Storm Imelda Tracking Chart
• Tropical Storm Imelda Forecaster’s Discussion & Computer Models
• Tropical Storm Imelda Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

Starting Wednesday, the sun comes out. Other than stout northeast winds, we have a kind forecast ahead:

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

5:03p While it appears we’re not getting a hurricane visit, there will be some wind this week.

A high pressure system from the north teamed with effects from Imelda (and Humberto) will deliver brisk northeast winds.

Like this:

• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast

These northeast winds will be pushing water levels up a foot or two (or three). The usual places (like Hodges St near the harbor) will see flooding.

• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge

2:05p The storm has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Imelda, now 40 mph winds. Imelda is expected to reach hurricane status (75mph) Tuesday… but also forecast to turn east and away Tuesday. The latest:

• Tropical Storm Imelda Tracking Chart
• Tropical Storm Imelda Forecaster’s Discussion & Computer Models
• Tropical Storm Imelda Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

Under 3 hours left in Heartworks Harborfest online auction. It’s for a grand and noble cause, and there are some fun things.

9:01a Fay Bond celebrates her 102nd birthday today. A party was planned for Lou Mac Park… weather has moved that party to the Oriental Woman’s Club. It’s 3p-7 today, and you’re invited.

8:50a It’s good news for us kids in eastern NC this morning. Future storm Imelda is mostly staying away… the forecast track turning east off the Florida coast.

We are projected to get some rain from the distant pass, maybe a couple inches.

When we smile about a storm going away… it’s going somewhere. There’s a song that says it: one man’s ceiling, is another man’s floor.

A few hundred miles (600) off Beaufort NC, is the island nation of Bermuda. They don’t have such a merry forecast this morning. Bermuda is preparing to get a near visit from major hurricane Humberto, and right after that Imelda.

Sometime today, Tropical Depression Nine will become Tropical Storm Imelda. It is expected to reach category 1 hurricane strength (75mph) on it’s Atlantic journey.

11:07a The potential storm is now officially Tropical Depression Nine, likely to become Tropical Storm Imelda later today.

The forecast track keeps on becoming more favorable, turning east sooner, off the Georgia coast. This track makes it less likely that we would see significant impact from Imelda.

• Tropical Depression Nine Tracking Chart
• Tropical Depression Nine Forecaster’s Discussion & Computer Models
• Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

5:45a A couple days ago, models were divided between the storm coming ashore at SC, or being pulled back out to sea.

This morning the official NHC forecast is beginning to favor the “pulled back to sea” prediction.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecaster’s Discussion & Computer Models
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

While this may be good news, it’s not unlikely this forecast track will change (perhaps significantly) in coming days. The impact of nearby Hurricane Humberto makes this a more challenging prediction.

Note also the storm slows as it nears the SC coast. Storm Nine / Imelda stalling and raining (and raining) is a concern.

Meanwhile, back here in river city: Cloudy and rainy today. And Sunday. And Monday. Add Tuesday.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

5:00p We have a declared storm system, and an official NHC track. Invest 94 is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

It is expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda sometime Saturday, and may just reach category 1 hurricane strength (75 mph) before a South Carolina landfall.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecaster’s Discussion & Computer Models
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states.

12:05p This afternoon you can have a craft beer, catch some tunes, and learn more about Neuse Neighbors & Prime-Time. They are having a Friendraiser from 4 til 7p at New Village Brewery. Also at the brewery today: La Cocina del Coqui food truck, and Brant Island Strings play the beer garden.

Mariposa Wine Bar & Bakery is open Sat-Sun-Mon. The bakery (w morning coffee) open 7a-10, wine bar 3p-8. Pumpkin cheesecake is among the temptations waiting this weekend. The farmers of the Farmer’s Market show their wares Sat mornings 8a-11 on Hodges near the harbor.

A Taste of Philly food truck at the brewery Saturday, plus TerraTones plays the beer garden. music rained out. Harborfest for HeartWorks Saturday 5:00p until, this year at Heartworks own Safe Harbor Youth Center in Bayboro.

You can attend church outdoors, OUMC holds Sunday services 8:30a at Lou Mac Park. Oriental very much has a most Senior, Senior Citizen. It’s Fay Bond, and she celebrates her 102nd birthday Sunday with a public party at Lou Mac Park, 3p-7. The party is on, but it has been moved to the Oriental Womans Club (to avoid any rain).

Find it all in What’s Happening.

8:33a Humberto became Hurricane Humberto this morning. The storm is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend, but the forecast track keeps it offshore.

Invest 94 is expected to be declared a tropical depression this weekend, then sometime after become Tropical Storm Imelda.

Hurricane Humberto may be part of the story of Imelda.

Those confused computer models…actually do tell a story. Either Imelda comes inshore at the SC coast, OR, Imelda is pulled out to sea by Humberto. The nearby presence of major Hurricane Humberto makes Imelda’s track particularly difficult to call.

• Hurricane Center

2:29p Tonight’s Evening at the Museum talk: Ross Pease presents Aids to Navigation. Red, green, port, starboard. Those things that guide you safely to new harbors.

Ross is an Oriental icon: he worked at the Provision Company, former Harbormaster at Oriental Harbor Marina, a teacher at World Wide Marine Training, and a master at knots and line.

Come out for the presentation & discussion tonight at 6:30p.

11:07a An updated computer model on Invest 94 clearly spells it out. We don’t know.

• Hurricane Center

9:51a Recently there was a fundraiser for Fire Station 19. Tim at Oriental Deli writes in with the impressive results:

8:18a The Atlantic now has Hurricane Gabrielle (bound for the Azores), and Storm Humberto (headed our way~ish, but models show a future turn east and offshore).

The question for our locale: Where is Invest 94 headed?

There are some computer models that show it turning east and offshore, but some show it headed for The Bean. The only safe conclusion this morning is: we don’t know.

There is a huge spread in computer model ensemble predictions, ranging from Bermuda to Florida (and even questions if Humberto and Invest 94 might combine).

To show the spread, here is an animation between those friendly turn-offshore models, and a graphic showing all the models that can’t agree:

The latest from NOAA/NHC on Invest 94:

• Hurricane Center

While Invest 94 (future storm Imelda) may be hard to predict right now, there is one thing one can predict.

Fay Bond’s birthday.

Sunday Sept 28, Fay turns 102. There’s a party at Lou Mac park, and you’re invited.

9:00a Invest 94 has our attention. First, will it become a storm? It looks likely:

If it forms, the next name is probably Imelda (Invest 93 expected to become Humberto). Imelda, an “i” storm.

“i” storms make us a tad nervous. Isabel (2003, 9 ft surge), Irene (2011, 9.5 ft surge).

The latest models suggest Invest 94 (future Imelda), will get within golfing range of Myrtle Beach / Wilmington… and then take a crazy right.

Will it do that? These are early early unofficial models, so maybe probably not. That said, most all the various models currently suggest future Imelda is likely to stay offshore, although it may be barely offshore.

When will we know more? The storm is expected to be officially declared later this week, so Friday or Saturday we could have an official NHC track to go by.

• Hurricane Center

8:22a It’s Wednesday, and Oriental’s Piggly Wiggly has new weekly specials.

Here are the Piglet deals for Sept 24 – 30.

8:50a What’s up on the Atlantic?

Invests 93 & 94 are now being tracked (an “Invest” is a potential storm system).

Invest 93 looks like no concern… it will turn north and then east, kinda like Gabrielle.

Invest 94 is the question. The words from NOAA/NHC:

Here are two very different (unofficial) model outcomes for Invest 94:

(click images for the big view)

Which is true? The wisdom on disparate computer models is they all may be wrong, until they start to more closely agree on the outcome. The models are all unofficial (NOAA/NHC typically does not provide forecast tracks until there is a declared tropical depression or storm).

That said, Invest 94 is a potential stormy visitor. We’ll be keeping track of this one.

• Hurricane Center

5:01p It is now Hurricane Gabrielle, 75 mph, Category 1. The forecast track still keeps Gabrielle far far away, mid Atlantic.

Beyond Garbrielle, there are now two Atlantic tropical waves to watch:

• Hurricane Center

On August 14 cruising sailor Bill Schmitt went for a bike ride to the grocery store. A collision with a vehicle on Broad Street left him with life threatening injuries. He never regained consciousness, dying just over 3 week later. His story is here.

There is now a GoFundMe to raise funds for his funeral.

1:44p On the Old Theater stage, two stand up comics. Sid Davis kicks off the night, then Paul Snyder. 7p, tonight.

At the brewery, Jasmin Tasty Thai is serving, with Shawn Aldridge playing the beer garden.

Saturday morning the Farmer’s Market is on Hodges. The oddly epic Greens Creek Challenge Regatta is on the creeks of Oriental most of the day, all based out of Bow To Stern. Nautical Wheelers has wine tastings Saturday at 2 & 3p. At New Village Brewery… kittens. Purring Angels Cat Rescue has a kitten adoption event, 3-7p. Taylor & Sons BBQ food truck at the brewery, while the Mad Fiddler fiddles in the beer garden.

It’s all in What’s Happening.

Sunny & near 80 both weekend days. Light winds 5-10 Saturday on the Neuse, freshening to 10-15 Sunday.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

On the Atlantic, no real concerns (for the moment). Tropical Storm Garbrielle will reach Hurricane strength over the weekend, but Gabes is staying way away, mid Atlantic. There is a tropical wave being watched, but if development occurs it appears at least a week away.

• Hurricane Center

9:21a Known by fellow sailors as Bill or Will, William Schmitt lived simply… aboard a Cape Dory 27. A bike ride in August left him with injuries from which he did not recover.

More about William’s life is here.

3:14p Tonight’s Evening at the Museum talk: Communications, HAM Radio and the Hunt for Amelia Earhart.

Bill Michne presents… come out for the presentation & discussion tonight at 6:30p.

Maybe there will be an update on the Amelia Earhart case.

9:40a On Saturday, folks will go out on small sailboats, for an annual Oriental tradition. It’s called the Greens Creek Challenge, a regatta for sailboats 20 ft and under. You can steer to more info here.

Friday night comedy comes to the Old Theater stage. Sid Davis opens, then Paul Snyder (one ticket, two separate comedy acts).

Here’s Sid Davis:

The show is 7p Friday, Old Theater.

Storm Gabrielle has 50 mph winds, still forecast to steer way way east of us. There is now only one tropical wave to follow on the Atlantic, just emerging off Africa.