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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05AM EDT (0605 UTC) Thursday Apr 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Gambia/Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward to near 08N20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 01N to 07N between 16W and 23W. There is no ITCZ present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A board surface ridge extends west-southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Thick cirrus related to convection across eastern Mexico is streaming over the northern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted for the rest of the southern Gulf, except the western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain moderate to fresh SE winds Gulf-wide through Sun morning, except for strong ENE winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Gulf at night. A cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Gulf Sun afternoon, and reach from Tampa Bay to 25N90W to SW to 22N95W Monday morning, then exit the Gulf Mon evening. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow the front, briefly reaching strong over the northeastern Mexico offshore waters Sun evening.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A Bermuda High north of the Bahamas continues to channel trade winds across the entire basin. A surface trough over the Dominican Republic is coupling with a pronounced upper-level trough originated from the northwestern Atlantic to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and nearby waters. Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south- central basin, near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found near the ABC Islands and at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will sustain fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and off northwestern Colombia at night during the next few days. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere in the basin. The pressure gradient will relax somewhat during the weekend and into early next week as a frontal boundary exits the southeastern U.S. coast.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough extends from 18N59W through a 1013 mb low near 22N58W to 29N54W. Aided by strong divergent flow aloft, scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 20N to 29N between 50W and 58W. Tight gradient between this low and the 1022 mb Mid-Atlantic High near 31N46W is generating strong to near-gale force NE to SE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft from 21N to 25N between 55W and 59W. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of northeastern Brazil and French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the aforementioned winds and seas near the 1013 mb low, gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate easterly swell are noted from 20N to 26N between 55W and the Bahamas/southern Florida coast. For the rest of the sub-tropical Atlantic north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and Georgia/northern Florida coast, the Bermuda and Mid-Atlantic Highs are promoting light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in gentle to moderate swell, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle NNE to NE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are found from 07N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 28W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 28W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will persist over the waters east of northeastern Florida through Sun. The pressure gradient between the 1013 mb low and Mid-Atlantic High will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds east of the Bahamas, Great Bahama Bank and approaches of the Windward Passage through Thursday night. The low will move east of the area Thursday morning and winds over this region will diminish to moderate. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the Florida offshore waters north of Freeport on Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to move off northeastern Florida Sun evening. These winds will become strong Sun night and diminish to moderate to fresh Mon.

Forecaster: Patrick Chan, National Hurricane Center